Elizbar Elizbarashvili

A new scientific direction of landscape geophysics - landscape climatology has been developed on the basis of studies of the climatic conditions of formation, the climatic regime, the climatic patterns of functioning and transformation of the natural landscapes of the Caucasus, . The main problems of the scientific direction are considered. It is intended for scientists, students, graduate students and doctoral students interested in the problems of climatology and landscape science.

Present state of the investigation of climatic resources of Georgia is generalized and prospects of their cfficient use are outlined.

Complex Atlas of climatic and agro-climatic resources of Georgia has been elaborated for the first time. Its publishing as of a fundamental work will be of crucial importance. Results of perennial researches of Georgian scientists involved in this sphere are generalized in the work. The atlas consists of two parts. First part presents maps of general climate, factors of climate formation on the territory of Georgia, main elements of climate, atmospheric phenomena, distribution of resort resources and possible climate change, also as well as hazardous meteorological phenomena. The second part represents agro-climatic resources that enable agronomists to rationally dislocate agricultural crops, also forecast their high productivity. Majority of agro-climatic maps are designated for zoning of separate crops according to districts – cereals, vine, tea, citrus, subtropical crops etc. Phenological maps of agricultural crops shall also be taken into consideration. They are decisive in proper implementation of agro-technical measures, etc.

The monograph considers the geography, structure, areas and dynamics of such natural meteoro­logical phenomena, such as extremely abnormal temperatures, droughts, frosts, hurricane winds, heavy rainfall and hail, dangerous fogs, thunderstorms and ice. It is intended for scientists, practical engineers, agricultural workers, as well as for students, graduate and doctoral students in meteoro­logy, climatology, agrometeorology.

The research outpts of Grant Project “Development and validation of 1936-2008 year high resolution monthly gridded temperature and precipitation data set for use in global climate change assessment for Georgia” (Grant #09-734-5-170, Agreement №1- 5/67) realized by financial support of Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation has been presented in study.

The book discusses the main factors forming climate, regime of separate climate elements, complex features of climate, soil climate, microclimate studies, principles of climatic zoning, natural weather phenomena, perspectives for the use of climate resources and climate change in Georgia.

The main factors of Achara Region’s climate formation as well as territorial distribution of climatic elements, climatic resources, complex climatic characteristics and the dangerous weather conditions are considered.

The main factors of Abkhazia Region’s climate formation as well as territorial distribution of climatic elements, climatic resources, complex climatic characteristics and the dangerous weather conditions are considered.

The main factors of Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti Region’s climate formation as well as territorial distribution of climatic elements, climatic resources, complex climatic characteristics and the dangerous weather conditions are considered.

The main factors of Guria Region’s climate formation as well as territorial distribution of climatic elements, climatic resources, complex climatic characteristics and the dangerous weather conditions are considered.

The main factors of Shida Kartli Region’s climate formation as well as territorial distribution of climatic elements, climatic and agroclimatic resources, complex climatic characteristics and the dangerous weather conditions are considered

The main factors of Imereti Region’s climate formation as well as territorial distribution of climatic elements, climatic and agroclimatic resources, complex climatic characteristics and the dangerous weather conditions are considered.

The main factors of Kakheti Region’s climate formation as well as territorial distribution of climatic elements, climatic and agroclimatic resources, complex climatic characteristics and the dangerous weather conditions are considered.

The main factors shaping the climate of Racha-Lechkhumi Kvemo Svaneti were studied: topography, atmospheric radiation factors, circulation processes; regularities of the territorial distribution of the main climatic elements: air temperature and humidity, atmospheric precipitation, snow cover, wind; potential of climatic resources: resort, helio and wind energy resources; considerable attention is paid to agroclimatic resources and forecasts; considered dangerous weather phenomena: strong winds, blizzards, fogs, intense and heavy rainfall, frosts.

The content of the manual coincides with the current curriculum. It includes knowledge about the conception and development of science, the composition and structure of the geographical envelope, the dynamics and regularities of development, the results of social economy and the regulation of negative processes.

The manual consists of three parts. The first part presents the basics of climatology and is intended for undergraduate students. It discusses the main climate-forming factors, the influence of terrain on climate, microclimate, classification of climates and climate change. The second part of the manual presents climatology. It contains regional climatology of parts of the country, countries of the world and important mountain systems of the world, a brief description of the climate and climatic resources of Georgia. The third part discusses the methods of producing meteorological observations and their climatological processing. In particular, basic meteorological tools and principles of measuring meteorological elements, methods of calculating basic climatological characteristics, principles of empirical and mathematical modeling of a series of meteorological observations, correlation and regression analysis, stochastic processes are discussed. The second and third parts of the thesis are intended for master's and doctoral students. The guide as a whole will be useful for geography teachers and scientists working in the field of climatology.

The content of the manual coincides with the current curriculum. It includes knowledge about the conception and development of science, the composition and structure of the geographical envelope, the dynamics and regularities of development, the results of social economy and the regulation of negative processes.

At the modern stage of the development of the natural environment, natural disasters caused by anthropogenic pressures are increasing and often threaten with death and destruction the vital components of humanity - soil-vegetation cover, landforms and the stability of atmospheric air, water and other objects. Accumulated reports about them cause people to feel terrible even now: floods and floods, mudslides and rockfalls, erosion and fires, storms and tsunamis... Today, the activation of these events is activated with full force and power. We should not expect them to slow down in the future either, and people are clearly powerless with the methods and methods of defense measures. In this case, it is especially important not to deal with the consequences of natural disasters, but to predict the disasters caused by them. The mentioned problem is addressed by the development of the relevant textbook, which is intended for students of geography specialty (undergraduate level) of Sukhumi State University.

The lecture course is intended for the Sokhumi State University geography major (undergraduate level) students.

The auxiliary manual is intended for university students of ecology and geography.

Lecture course for geography students at the second level of education (master's degree)

The content of the lecture course corresponds to the current educational programs and is intended for students of natural science specialties. It will also be useful for doctoral students, masters, and teachers who are interested in issues related to database processing.

The mountainous regions of Caucasus are characterized by the exceptional variety of dangerous meteorological phenomena that often cause significant material damage and human losses. These dangerous meteorological phenomena often occur simultaneously and exacerbate the situation. For example, increased wind during heavy rains, fog during snowstorms, hurricanes with hail, etc. To reduce the negative effects of such phenomena, it is necessary to know their probabilistic characteristics in given area. These meteorological phenomena are independent of each other, therefore the physical process of their occurrence has stochastic nature and it can be investigated as a random process based on the well-known probability theorems of multiplication and addition. Using these theorems, the stochastic process of realizing various combinations of dangerous meteorological phenomena in the Caucasus Mountains is modeled. For the Caucasus Mountains, the most likely is the implementation of snowstorm, hurricane wind or hail in combination with dangerous fog. The occurrence probabilities of one of the complex events, probability of the joint implementation of complex of both events and the periods of risk recurrence are identified.

Soil-climatic zoning of Georgia has been developed on the basis of data on soil temperatures measured at the surface and at a depth of 20 cm at 60 meteorological stations in different physiographic zones from 1947–1990 and the map of agrohydrological zones of Georgia.

Soil temperature regimes in Georgia are assessed on the basis of records of 60 meteorological stations within the period from 1947 to 1995. Heat exchange in the soil-air system, the effect of soil types and landforms on the temperature, and regularities of the temperature distribution pattern in the topsoil are discussed.

Frequency of occurrence and dynamics of droughts in 20th century were studied based on the observational materials of 20 meteorological stations of Eastern Georgia. The periods with precipitation deficit were studied against the background of high temperatures. The drought intensity was assessed with the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient.

The dynamics of frequency of warm and cold months for warm and cold periods of the year on the whole as well as for the ablation period is studied for glaciers of the Greater Caucasus based on the analysis of maps on anomalies of monthly mean air temperatures for the 1901–2000 period. A relation between the change in frequency of temperature anomalies and the glaciation area is established.

The thermal regime of the different soil types of Georgia has been studied on the basis of soil temperature records obtained at 60 weather stations in 1947–1995. It is shown that the thermal conductivity and temperature gradients in the soil profiles depend on the soil type. In the upper 0–20 cm of the soils in the intermontane depressions, the lowest temperature gradients in the summer are typical of the red ferrallitic soils (0.5–1.1°C/dm), and the highest gradients are observed in the chernozems of eastern Georgia (1.0–1.3°c/dm). The soil temperature gradients are especially high in the late spring (1.4–1.8°c/dm), when the atmospheric convection is formed. In the mountains, the lowest gradients in the summer are observed in the cinnamonic soils (0.4–0.9°c/dm), and the highest gradients are established in the brown forest soils (0.5–1.3°c/dm). The redistribution of the temperatures in the deeper layers depends on the soil texture. The lowest temperature gradient is in the soils of Telavi (3.1°c/m), where a stony layer is found at the depth of 60 cm, which causes the good heating of the deep layers. The highest gradients are seen in the clayey and loamy soils of western (Chakva, 3.8°c/m) and eastern (Tbilisi, 3.9°c/m) Georgia. This is probably related to the high water content in the heavy-textured soils.

On the observation data of 30 meteorological stations in Georgia during 1961–2008, occurrence frequency and dynamics are studied of the most hazardous light frosts registered during the freeze-free period. Occurrence frequency of minimum temperature during light frosts is studied along with the light frost areas. Dynamics of light frost occurrence frequency in the 20th century is considered.

The statistical structure of dangerous fogs with the visibility of less than 50 m is studied using the observation data of 50 meteorological stations in Georgia for the period of 1961–2006. The contribution of dangerous fogs to the total number of foggy days is estimated. The number of days with dangerous fogs and their duration in different regions of the country are determined and the empirical functions of their distribution, sizes of areas of their expansion, temperature regime, and peculiarities of annual variations are studied.

The paper presents a framework for the nation-wide assessment of natural hazards, vulnerability and risk for the Republic of Georgia. Firstly, a relational database was created in order to collect all necessary information available. Secondly, hazard maps were drawn based on an innovative approach of assessing the magnitude and frequency of meteorological hazard types, where the corresponding formalization was not yet satisfying. Thirdly, the associated economic losses were evaluated and presented in monetary terms for some hazard types (droughts, hurricanes, hail, frost, flash floods and earthquakes), while for other types of hazards, the information remained descriptive. Fourthly, based on the hazard inventory, an approach was developed that allowed for the calculation of an overall vulnerability value for each individual hazard type, using the Gross Domestic Product per unit area (applied to population) as the indicator for elements at risk exposed. The correlation between estimated economic losses, physical exposure and the magnitude for each of the six types of hazards has been investigated in detail by using multiple linear regression analysis. Economic losses for all past events were estimated, and historical vulnerability was estimated. Finally, the spatial distribution of general vulnerability was assessed, and the expected maximum economic loss was calculated as well as a multi-risk map was set-up. The presented method will contribute to a reduction of disaster losses in Georgia and will foster future efforts of harmonization of risk management strategies in the country.

The peculiarities of wire icing in mountain areas of Georgia are investigated using the observational data of 14 meteorological stations of Georgia. Determined are the maximum frequency and the maximum mass of glaze-ice deposits, as well as the frequency of deposits of different mass and thickness. Considered are the effects of orography and meteorological conditions on the wire icing processes.

The statistical structure of hurricane winds is studied using the data of observation at 50 meteorological stations in Georgia for the period of 1961–2008. Determined are the number of days and the duration of hurricane winds in different regions of the country. Studied are the empirical functions of their distribution and the areal limits.

Air temperature trends under conditions of global warming are studied using the observational data from 87 meteorological stations of Georgia for the period of 1936–2011. Plotted are the geographic information maps of the spatial structure of temperature variation rate.

Created are the grid datasets of monthly mean and annual mean temperature as well of monthly, seasonal, and annual values of the total precipitation with the resolution of 25 km for the period of 1936–2011. The obtained datasets characterize the real picture of the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation on the territory of Georgia; therefore, they are used for working out geoinformative maps of temperature and precipitation variations. Revealed are the areas and centers with different intensity of warming and cooling. It is found that the annual temperature and total annual precipitation averaged for the territory do not vary considerably under conditions of the global warming.

Using observational data from 50 meteorological stations in Georgia for 1936–2011, some temperature indices were studied for assessing the climate change: extreme values of temperature, the number of frosty, cold, and hot days and tropical nights as well as indices based on distribution percentiles. Geoinformation maps of the spatial structure are plotted and the dynamics of these indices for the period of global warming is studied. Determined are the mean values of indices for different averaging periods. The obtained results can be used for generalizing corresponding indices for the Caucasian region, the Black Sea basin, or Western Asia.

Using observational data from 50 weather stations in Georgia for the period of 1936-2013, the following climate indices of moisture regime are studied: maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation, the simple daily intensity index, the number of days with precipitation equal to not less than 10, 20, and 50 mm, number of consecutive wet and dry days. Geoinformation maps of the spatial structure are plotted, and the dynamics of these indices is studied for the period of global warming. Expected changes in the moisture regime in different physiographic regions in Georgia are assessed.

The original method developed in the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory is used for assessing the potential of renewable energy resources of Georgia. The cumulative index of potential energy resources and their constituents (helio, wind, and water resources) are estimated quantitatively in conventional units for the regions of Georgia. The respective geoinformation maps are compiled.

Variations in the number of hot days, their frequency, intensity, and duration in Georgia are studied using observational data from 50 weather stations for the period of 1936-2013. The periods of the onset of hot days in the year and their maximum intensity in different physiographic conditions are identified. The zoning of Georgia was carried out according to the rate of changes in the number of hot days. The results enhance the understanding of climate change in Georgia under global warming conditions.

Based on observational data from 30 weather stations in Georgia for the period of 1936–2013, the geography, statistical structure, intensity, duration, and dynamics of tropical nights are investigated. The geoinformation map was constructed for the number of tropical nights for the WMO base period. The periods of occurrence and return of their different gradations and the regularities of long-term variations are revealed.

Based on observational data from 25 weather stations for the period of 1936–2013, the statistical structure, intensity, and duration of frosts as well as the dynamics of the number of frost days in the mountain regions of Georgia are investigated. The continuous duration of frosts, the time of the occurrence, the frequency of different gradations of the number of frost days, and the regularities of their long-term variations are revealed.

The number of days with blizzard, the intensity, duration, periods of occurrence, and dynamics of blizzards in the mountain regions of Georgia are investigated using observational data from 20 weather stations. The features of wind and temperature regimes of blizzards are revealed.

Based on the observations from more than 20 weather stations, the frequency of occurrence of the most dangerous weather events for Georgia (very heavy precipitation, hail, hurricane wind, blizzard, fog) is investigated. Based on the stochastic laws, the probabilities of occurrence of one of the events from the complex, the probability of the joint occurrence of both events of the complex, and the return periods of risks are revealed.

To study the distribution and repetition of droughts, an archive of droughts has been created in eastern Georgia for 19 meteorological stations for the vegetation period between 1961 and 2008. It has been evaluated geographic and meteorological conditions of droughts formation: conditions of humidity, temperature background, hydrothermal regime of soils. It has been studied the territorial distribution and probability of dry months, repetition of droughts within a season and a month, severe and ultra-severe droughts. It has been analyzed a multi-year dynamics of droughts against the background of global warming.

Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936-2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10mm, 20mm and 50mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150-200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10-15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

Created are the grid datasets of monthly mean and annual mean temperature as well of monthly, seasonal, and annual values of the total precipitation with the resolution of 25 km for the period of 1936–2011. The obtained datasets characterize the real picture of the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation on the territory of Georgia; therefore, they are used for working out geoinformative maps of temperature and precipitation variations. Revealed are the areas and centers with different intensity of warming and cooling. It is found that the annual temperature and total annual precipitation averaged for the territory do not vary considerably under conditions of the global warming.

Created are the grid datasets of monthly mean and annual mean temperature as well of monthly, seasonal, and annual values of the total precipitation with the resolution of 25 km for the period of 1936–2011. The obtained datasets characterize the real picture of the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation on the territory of Georgia; therefore, they are used for working out geoinformative maps of temperature and precipitation variations. Revealed are the areas and centers with different intensity of warming and cooling. It is found that the annual temperature and total annual precipitation averaged for the territory do not vary considerably under conditions of the global warming.

The dynamics of the occurrence frequency of extreme anomalies of monthly mean air temperature and its effect on precipitation and river water discharge in the 20th century are studied using weather observations at 40 stations and data on the hydrological regime of 34 rivers in Georgia.