Giorgi Meladze

From the agricultural point of view, Kartli is an important region, which is administratively divided into Shida and Kvemo Kartli regions. Based on the data of multi-year meteorological observations, according to the sums of active temperatures (>10°C) and atmospheric precipitations (mm), agroclimatic zones (4 zones for Shida Kartli, and 5 for Kvemo Kartli) for the distribution of relevant agricultural plants are allocated. For global warming conditions, with composed of equations, the sums of active temperatures are calculated (both, current and scenario with a temperature increase of 2°C). According to which appropriate agro-climatic zones for the purpose of spreading prospective agricultural plants are allocated.

Based on the meteorological observations carried out in the areas of the mountainous and high-mountainous areas of Mtskheta-Mtianeti in east Georgia and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in west Georgia, the trend of changing agro-climatic characteristics under the global warming has been revealed. According to the equations drafted by future (2020-2050) scenarios (1ºC and 2ºC temperature increase), the sums of active temperatures (>10ºC) were determined and agroclimatic zones were identified. As per the scenarios developed for global warming, a temperature increase will not have any significant negative impact on the agricultural crops provided it is not higher than the increase forecasted by the scenario. On the contrary, it may be beneficial to grow the crops at different altitudes from the sea level, by considering vertical zoning, where a 1ºC temperature increase will make it possible to grow the crops 100-200 m higher and 200-300 m higher with a 2ºC temperature increase as compared to the present zones.

Based on the 70-year-long meteorological observations (in 1948-2017) carried out in the areas of the mountainous and high-mountainous areas of Mtskheta-Mtianeti in east Georgia and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in west Georgia, a trend of changing the agroclimatic features (sum of active temperatures (>10ºC) and atmospheric precipitations (mm)), rise/decline in particular, has been identified under the impact of global warming. As per the designed scenario, at 1ºC and 2ºC increase in temperature (in west and east Georgia, respectively), an increase of the sum of active temperatures above the current (baseline) value in the mountainous (3525ºC) and high-mountainous (2206ºC) areas of Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in the west is 189ºC and 192ºC, respectively. As the equations drafted by considering the above-said future (2020-2050) scenarios (1ºC and 2ºC temperature increase), the sums of active temperatures (>10ºC) and agroclimatic zones with the prospect to grow relevant crops were identified. Three agroclimatic zones were identified in Mtskheta-Mtianeti region in east Georgia. The I mountainous zone spreads from 1000 to 1500 m altitude, the II high-mountainous zone spreads up to 2000 m altitude, and the III high-mountainous zone spreads from 2000 to 2500 m altitude.

Based on the analysis and statistical processing of data of multi-year (in 1948-2017) meteorological observations in the eastern highland regions of Georgia (Akhmeta, Kazbegi, Ninotsminda, Tsalka, Java) a trend of increase/decrease the duration of vegetation periods, sums of active temperatures (>10°C), atmospheric precipitations (mm) and hydrothermal coefficients (HTC), both during the whole vegetation period (IV-X) and during the active vegetation period (VI-VIII) have been identified. The dynamics of their course were depicted by trends. According to the trends, the tendencies of increasing the active temperature sums and decreasing tendencies of atmospheric precipitation (Java is an exception, Shida Kartli region) and hydrothermal coefficients are revealed. In order to present these values clearly, the data of 70-year-long observations mentioned above were divided into two 35-year-long periods. The I period covers the years of 1948-1982, and the II period covers the years of 1983-2017. According to the municipalities of the highland regions (Akhmeta, Kazbegi, Ninotsminda, Tsalka, Java), in the second period, the date of the onset of active air temperatures (>10°C) occurs earlier and the date of the temperature below 10°C ends later as compared to the first period. In the same period, the sums of active temperatures are increased and the vegetation period is prolonged. In the second period, i.e. for the last 35 years, the amount of precipitations and consequently, the hydrothermal coefficients (Java is an exception, where the change of HTC is not observed during the vegetation period) have decreased. Despite this, if the precipitations do not reduce further, they will be sufficient to grow cereal crops, vegetable and other annual crops, as well as succulent roots for animal forage and pasture and hayfield grasses with (one-time) irrigation in some years.

The location and orographic conditions of Georgia lead to the formation of a variety of climates and landscapes in both the western and eastern parts. The risks arising from these events have a great impact on the sustainable development of the country. The urgency of the emerging problem gives an impetus to the study of natural hazards. The study of natural events using Earth Observation Mission (EOS) satellite data has become particularly relevant, which allows for a detailed study of the natural factors causing these events. The purpose of the presented research is to study the spatial-temporal regularities of natural hydrometeorological events in the coastal regions of Georgia (Adjara, Guria, Samegrelo): extreme temperatures, strong winds, torrential rains and frosts using the Georgian hydrometeorological observation network and satellite data. Strong winds (v>15 m/s) cause great damage to the economy and the population. Continuous series of existing observational data are used to study its variability. Rainfall extremes along with snowmelt on rivers cause landslides and floods. The number of extreme rainy days and their causes are analyzed. Frosts are one of the most dangerous meteorological phenomena for agriculture in the region. The degree of damage to agricultural crops by frost depends on its intensity and duration. Climatic features of glaciers are analyzed. Their distribution in time and space, as well as the dates of the first autumn and last spring frosts and the duration of the frost-free period are established. Taking into account the mentioned characteristics allows selection of effective measures for protection of plants from frosts and reduction of crop losses.

In terms of contemporary global climate warming, the problem of slowing down the ongoing climate change and vulnerability and adaptation to it has become a world-wide issue, which was recognized as the major challenge of the UNO at the beginning of the present century. Consequently, the study of the impact of irregular climate change on the productivity and vulnerability of the agricultural crops and expected transformation of the existing agroclimatic zones is necessary and topical. Based on the 70-year-long meteorological observations (in 1948-2017) carried out in the areas of the mountainous and high-mountainous areas of Mtskheta-Mtianeti in east Georgia and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in west Georgia, a trend of changing the agroclimatic features rise/decline in particular, has been identified under the impact of global warming. As per the designed scenario, at 1ºC and 2ºC increase in temperature (in west and east Georgia, respectively), an increase of the sum of active temperatures above the current (baseline) value in the mountainous (3525ºC) and high-mountainous (2206ºC) areas. An increase in the sum of active temperatures in the mountainous (3581ºC) and high-mountainous (2128ºC) areas of Mtskheta-Mtianeti in the east is 486ºC and 500ºC, respectively. As the equations drafted by considering the above-said future (2020-2050) scenarios (1ºC and 2ºC temperature increase), the sums of active temperatures (>10ºC) and agroclimatic zones with the prospect to grow relevant crops were identified.

Based on the analysis and statistical processing of data of multi-year (in 1948-2017) meteorological observations in the eastern dry subtropical conditions of Georgia (Kvemo Kartli) a trend of increase/decrease the duration of vegetation periods, sums of active temperatures (>10°C), atmospheric precipitations (mm) and hydrothermal coefficients (HTC) have been identified. In order to present these values clearly, the data of 70-year-long observations mentioned above were divided into two 35-year-long periods. The I period covers the years of 1948-1982, and the II period covers the years of 1983-2017. Taking into account the increase in the sums of active temperatures (>10°C), a dry subtropical agroclimatic zone has been allocated for the distribution of prospective crops.

Agroclimatic features in mountainous and high-mountainous zones of Shida Kartli are assessed. Based on the analysis and statistical processing of multi-year meteorological observation data (in 1948-2017), as well as future scenario (2ºC temperature increase), the duration of vegetation periods, sums of active temperatures (>10°C) and atmospheric precipitations (mm) and hydrothermal coefficient has been identified a trend of increase/decrease of mountainous and high-mountainous zones. The data of 70-year-long observations for comparison were divided into two 35-year-long periods. The first period covers the years of 1948-1982, and the second period covers the years of 1983-2017. According to the scenario, in case of temperature increase by 2°C, there are allocated the mountain and high-mountainous agroclimatic zones for distribution of prospective crops. 

On the background of global warming, agroclimatic features in mountainous and high-mountainous zones of Samtskhe-Javakheti are assessed. Based on the analysis and statistical processing of multi-year meteorological observation data (in 1948-2017), as well as future scenario (2ºC temperature increase), the duration of vegetation periods, sums of active temperatures (>10°C) and atmospheric precipitations (mm) and hydrothermal coefficient has been identified a trend of increase/decrease of mountainous and high-mountainous zones. According to the scenario, in case of temperature increase by 2°C, there are allocated the mountain and high-mountainous agroclimatic zones for distribution of prospective crops.

A long-term of meteorological observational data (1970-2017) is used to study the impact of weather and climate extremes. It includes the estimation of extreme temperature, precipitation and wind data. The results were used for agro-climatic zoning of the territory of Georgia and also, recommendations are given for adaptation and mitigation measures.

Trends of increase / decrease of vegetation periods of dry subtropical, mountainous and highland zones, sums of active temperatures (> 10°C), atmospheric precipitation (mm) and HTC are established. Agro-climatic characteristics were calculated for the study zones, which were reflected in the trends. It is estimated that during the last 35 years in the II period (1983-2017) weak droughts decreased (by 6%) compared to the I period (1948-1982), while the frequency of moderate (9%) and strong (23%) droughts increased.

At increase of the sum of active temperatures above the current (baseline) value in the humid subtropical zone is 223ºC, in the mountainous and high-mountainous areas of Samegrelo - Zemo Svaneti is 189ºC and 192ºC, respectively. The vegetation period in the humid subtropical zone has increased by 12 dyes, in the mountainous and high-mountainous regions - by 11 and 9 days, respectively. Under the same scenario, the trends of decreasing atmospheric precipitations are also seen, the exception Zugdidi Municipality. Agro-climatic zones are identified.

In order to distribution of winter wheat in western and eastern Georgia the regression equations are compiled and the sums of active temperatures (>10°) was calculated. It turned out that in case of 1°C increase in air temperature according to the scenario, the sum of active temperatures will increase by 220-250°C on average, and it will increase by 440-480°C in case of a 2°C temperature increase. The area of distribution of winter wheat has expanded at the expense of vertical zoning. The area of distribution in Western Georgia as compared to the existing (basic) area of distribution has risen by 170-200 m on average, and by 350-400 m in Eastern Georgia.

A regression equation to fix the date of transfer of the air temperature above 10ºC in the vegetation period is deduced. The weather phenomena threatening the branch of agriculture in the given region (such as frosting, hail, drought and strong winds) and their occurrence at different altitudes above sea level are described. The seasonality and intensity of the mentioned phenomena are identified as well. In particular, a regression equation to fix the first days of expected frostings (the first and last frostings) is deduced. By considering the sums of active temperatures depending on vertical zoning, there are 4 agro-ecological zones identified with the areas of prospective crops.

For the Mtskheta-Mtianeti region during the vegetation period, which is mainly determined by the growth and development of plants, crop formation and productivity, trends of change of agro-climatic indicators - increase/decrease (sums of active temperatures and atmospheric precipitations, hydrothermal coefficient) under conditions of global warming is revealed. Which can be determined the dynamics of their change in time (1948-2017). Taking into account global warming, by the temperature increase (scenario, rise of temperature by 2°C) the agro-ecological zones are allocated. 

In terms of global warming, as the temperature increases, the centuries-old climatic parameters of different locations change and agricultural indices determining the development of productivity of agricultural crops change also. In terms of the changed environment, most economic damage may be inflicted to non-adaptive, vulnerable branches, including agrarian sector in the first instance. In this connection, the studies identified the changing tendency (increase/fall) of agroclimatic indices (sums of active temperatures (>10°C) and atmospheric precipitations (mm), hydrothermal coefficients) caused by global warming in the vegetation period in five regions of Georgia - in particular, the trends of increasing the sums of active temperatures and decreasing indices of atmospheric precipitations and hydrothermal coefficients are observed what evidences more frequent droughts of different types. 

Tendency of global warming was observed on the territory of Georgia. Increase of the temperature in Eastern and Western Georgia is 0.4 and 0.2°C, respectively. According to scenarios, at the increase of temperature by 2 and 1°C active temperature sums (>10°C) increase by 440-480°C and 220-250°C in Eastern and Western Georgia, respectively. Sums of increase and decrease (in %) of atmospheric precipitation (mm) are taken into consideration according to grapevine distribution areas. By the scenario worked out at the increase of temperature by 1°C the duration of the vegetation period (day) increases and amounts to 12 days on average, and at the temperature increase by 2°C the duration amounts 20 days. In this study, zones of distribution by sea levels of various vine sorts on the territory of Georgia are considered taking into account supposed increase of temperature. For forecasting of coming phases - flowerings and ripen are made corresponding regression of equations.

The multi-year studies by the Institute of Hydrometeorology on the base of Paravani mountainous (2200 m a.s.l., Ninotsminda Region) agrometeorological basis by application of organic fertilizer and bioenergy activator,  bioragis'' showed that the content of heavy metals and nitrates is in the framework of the maximum permissible concentration (MPC) in the received harvest (red beet, barley and other spices). The test site is characterized by favorable soil and climatic conditions and high energy resources, which largely determine the adoption of ecologically pure crops. There is established a high correlation of agro-climatic factors, organic fertilizers, and test crop harvest and are made appropriate regression equations.

According to the scenarios (increase of temperatures by 2ºC) on the territory of Borjomi agroecological conditions (active temperature sums, atmospheric precipitations, duration of vegetation period, abs. maximum and abs. minimum temperatures, winds, types of droughts) are estimated. There are for agroecological zones allocated, to grow appropriate crops. The results of the study evidence that the global warming (by the scenarios, increase of temperatures by 2ºC) impact on the increase of active temperatures sums consequently, the distribution area of the crops will expand and the zones will spread higher by 200-300 m (a.s.l.) as compared to the present areas of distribution.

The change trend (downward, upward) of agriculture development agroclimatic indices has been revealed due to global warming in Kakheti region. Which causes extension of vegetation period, temperature sum increasing and basically decreasing of precipitation sum. Therefore the decreasing tendency of hydrothermal coefficient index has been observed. This indicates on the increasing of weak and average droughts. The relevant measures have to been conducted against this negative event.

Global Warming is to be carried out in accordance with structure of the deployment of cultures to adapt the mitigation of drought resistant wheat events.

The agroclimatic indices trend has been revealed for Kvemo Kartli region (by municipalities) caused by global warming. Particularly active temperature, precipitation sum, also hydrothermal coefficient (htc) index changes have been revealed according elevations. Based on conducted research active temperature sum increasing, precipitation and (htc) decreasing have been detected during vegetation period. Considering above mentioned changes for agriculture normal productivity to conduct relevant agrotechnical measures have to be recommended.

In connection to the global climate change, regional model ECHAM4 and A2 future scenario is used to forecast the local climate change (2020-2050, example of Sagarejo). In accordance with the above-mentioned scenarios, provision (%) the sum of active temperatures (above 10°C) and probability (%) the absolute maximum and the absolute minimum temperatures was calculated. In case of 2°C increase in temperature under the scenario, climate change (2040-2050) will not negative impact on the growth and vegetation of crops.

Provide of crops with heat and atmospheric precipitations in Imereti region are considered. The equations of regress for practical use of the forecast of provide with heat of crops in the vegetative period are worked out. Taking into account the sums of active temperatures and atmospheric precipitation 5 agroclimatic zones for distribution of crops in the vegetative period are allocated. The Dangerous meteorological phenomena - frosts, drought, strong winds are considered. For the purpose of operative service of agriculture the forecast equations are made. 

 Taking into account global warming, according to the scenario at increase of temperature by 1-2ºС (accordingly), according to vertical zoning of a grapevine are determined the sums of active (≥10ºC) temperatures (240-4800C and more, accordingly). In zones of distribution of a grapevine existing today, according to the scenario, at increase of temperature by 1ºС the grapevine in the Western Georgia will grow about 100-150 m higher, and in Eastern Georgia at increase of temperature by 2ºC it will extend about 200-300 m higher in comparison with zones of distribution existing today. In zones of distribution of a grapevine is envisioned increasing and decreasing of the sum of atmospheric precipitations during the vegetative period. 

In connection to the global climate change, a regional model ECHAM4 and A2 future scenario is used to forecast the local climate change by calculating the anticipated data of meteorological observations of the climatic parameters of the future (2020-2050) for Akhaltsikhe. According to the scenario (at 1.5°C temperature increase), the sum of active temperatures will increase by 500°C on average. Duration of the vegetation period is 176 days on the average (basis), and under the scenario of future - 192. Agro-climatic zones for distribution of respectively agricultural crops according to the scenario are allocated. 

According to  materials of the  long-term meteorological observations are calculated corresponding of agro-meteorological indices (sum of air temperatures >10º, sum of atmospheric precipitations (mm), relative air humidity (%), deficiency of air humidity (mb), number days of without frost period, hydrothermal coefficient) for the vegetation period (IV-X) are presented. Table representing provision by sum of active temperatures are given. The estimation of dangerous meteorological phenomena for agricultural crops is considered. Directions of prevailing winds are established in order to plant shelter wind belts. Agro-climatic zones for propagation of corresponding crops are selected.

Aspects of global climate change are considered. According to the scenarios air temperature increase by 1 and 2° are developed (for Western and East Georgia, respectively). For definition of temperatures sums (>10°) under the scenarios increase by 1 and 2° the equation of regress is compiled. By the equation is defined and allocated zone of distribution of winter wheat. At increase of existing temperatures by 1 and 2° the active temperature sums is raises on average by 220-250º and 440-480° (respectively). In Western Georgia, upon the temperature increase by 1º winter wheat might spread up to 1450-1650 m above sea level, in Eastern Georgia up to 1750-1800 m.

Taking into account climate change under the developed scenario (at rise in temperature on 2ºС) the regress equation is worked out. By the equations is defined and allocated 5 vertical agroclimatic zones of distribution of perspective crops. Agrometeorological forecasting methods of crops yield have been created (winter wheat, corn and potato). It is established, that in the vegetative period, under the scenario at increase of existing temperatures by 2ºС the sums of active temperatures is raises on average by 450-500ºС.

Proceeding from global warming for territory of Sagarejo municipality the sums of active temperatures (> 10°C) are defined. It is established, that the active temperature sum totals 3470°C on the average, and under the scenario of future (at 2°C temperature increase) - 4160°C. Noted sum of temperature provides high productivity of agricultural crops and reception of two yields. Duration of the vegetative period 198 days on the average, and under the scenario of future - 220 days.

Agroecological zones for distribution of respectively agricultural crops according to the present and under the scenario are allocated.

Proceeding from global warming under the developed scenario (at rise in temperature on 2°) for territory municipality Borjomi the sums of active temperatures (> 10°) are defined, which makes 3570°, and present - 2930°. The temperature sum, received under the scenario, provides achieve of two harvest. Duration of the vegetative period is increased for 20 days. 4 agroecological zones for distribution of corresponding agricultural crops are allocated.

Proceeding from global warming under the developed scenario (at rise in temperature on 2°) for territory municipality Borjomi the sums of active temperatures (> 10°) are defined, which makes 3570°, and present - 2930°. The temperature sum, received under the scenario, provides achieve of two harvest. Duration of the vegetative period is increased for 20 days. 4 agroecological zones for distribution of corresponding agricultural crops are allocated.

Scenarios of (2020-2050) distributions of zones agricultural crops and reception of two yields with the account of global warming for district Dedoplistskaro are developed. It is established that the sum of active temperatures on the current makes 3360°, and under the future scenario at increase in temperature on 2° makes 3930°. Noted the temperature sum provides growth-development, high productivity of agricultural crops and reception of two yields. Duration of the vegetative period averages - 190 days, under the scenario of the future - 210 days. Agroclimatic zones under the scenario current and the future are allocated.

Influence of climate change (in accordance by vertical zonality) for the temperatures sums is given (above 10 °). For definition of temperatures sums under the scenarios increase by 1 and 2° for high-mountainous Western and East Georgia (respectively), the equation of regress is compiled. By the equation is defined and allocates three vertical аgro-ecological zones of distribution of perspective agricultural crops. In high-mountainous аgro-ecological zones at increase of existing temperatures by 1 and 2° the active temperature sums is raises on average by 240-260° and 480-500°(respectively).  

Influence of climate change (in accordance by vertical zonality) for the temperatures sums is given (above 10 °). For definition of temperatures sums under the scenarios increase by 1 and 2° for high-mountainous Western and East Georgia (respectively), the equation of regress is compiled. By the equation is defined and allocates three vertical аgro-ecological zones of distribution of perspective agricultural crops. In high-mountainous аgro-ecological zones at increase of existing temperatures by 1 and 2° the active temperature sums is raises on average by 240-260° and 480-500°(respectively).  

A trend for a rise in air temperature in Eastern Georgia against Western Georgia is revealed. In connection with the above, account for a rise in temperature by 1 and 2°C (respectively) for agroclimatic zones is taken into consideration. According to the completed regression equations, the effective heat sums at a 10000-gradation of air temperature (above 100) are determined. Five agroclimatic zones for distribution of respective crops are marked out for the territory of Georgia in the case of a rise by 1 and 2° under the developed scenarios. According to the scenarios, in the case of a rise in temperature by 1 and 2°, the effective heat sum exceeds on average the effective heat sum in the currently existing zones by 200-300 degrees and 400-500 degrees (respectively).

The received result of calculations enable us to make a conclusion on quite high effectiveness of the offered methodic, which allows for the specific of climatic changes to forecast change of productivity of crops and assess the height of the upper border of existing and transforming agroclimatic zones of their crops and assess the height of the upper border of their dissemination. There have been offered methods on the basis of application of the model type  weather-harvest''. through considering climatic changes, it enables: determination of expected change of productivity of agricultural crops; assessment of sensitiveness of crop productivity in regard to variations of climatic parameters; planning of upper border of current and transformed agroclimatic zones of dissemination of agricultural crops. 

As a result of the analysis and data processing of meteorological observations are established close correlation connections - between date of air temperature rise above 10°, the sum of active temperatures and altitude above sea level. On the basis of the established connections the equations of regress are made, according to which sums of active temperatures for agroclimatic zones are defined. 5 agroclimatic zones for distribution of various agricultural crops are allocated. According to the scenario, upon temperature rise of 1° for citrus, vineyards, tea, corn on grain, a winter wheat and other cultures the zone of distribution will go up to 100-150 m. above sea level, than nowadays exists, and at increase in temperature on 2° zones will go up to 200-300 m. a.s.l. 

 On the basis of many years meteorological observation the estimation is given: the lengths of solar light; absolutely maximal and minimal temperatures of air; temperatures of soil in the depths of 5 and 20 sm; numbers of days with atmospheric precipitations (≥5 mm). It is noted, that the considered region up to height of 1000-1500 m a.s.l. during the vegetation period is provided by the sum of temperatures, that is important for development grain, grapes, fruit, vegetable and other cultures. The close relation among absolutely minimal temperature of air, a snow cover, temperature of soil in the surface and depths of 5 sm are reveled, on the basis of which are made corresponding inequlities of regresses. According to agroclimatic resources calculated agroclimatic indices for the warm period (IV-X), which up to heigh of 1400-1500 m (above sea level) are satisfactory for production of agricultural crops.

Doctoral Thesis Referee

Master Theses Supervisor

Doctoral Thesis Supervisor/Co-supervisor

Scientific editor of monographs in foreign languages

Scientific editor of a monograph in Georgian

Editor-in-Chief of a peer-reviewed or professional journal / proceedings

Review of a scientific professional journal / proceedings

Member of the editorial board of a peer-reviewed scientific or professional journal / proceedings

Participation in a project / grant funded by an international organization

Participation in a project / grant funded from the state budget

Patent authorship

Membership of the Georgian National Academy of Science or Georgian Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Membership of an international professional organization

Membership of the Conference Organizing / Program Committee

National Award / Sectoral Award, Order, Medal, etc.

Honorary title

Monograph

Handbook

Research articles in high impact factor and local Scientific Journals

Publication in Scientific Conference Proceedings Indexed in Web of Science and Scopus