Maia Meladze

For agriculture, drought is an unfavorable meteorological event, which has a various effect on the growth and development of plants and their productivity. The article discusses the indicators of droughts in the vegetative period for the regions of Eastern Georgia (types of droughts, average number of drought days). Measures to be taken to reduce the risk of drought threats are given as a recommendation.

Based on the 70-year-long meteorological observations (in 1948-2017) carried out in the areas of the mountainous and high-mountainous areas of Mtskheta-Mtianeti in east Georgia and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in west Georgia, a trend of changing the agroclimatic features (sum of active temperatures (>10ºC) and atmospheric precipitations (mm)), rise/decline in particular, has been identified under the impact of global warming. As per the designed scenario, at 1ºC and 2ºC increase in temperature (in west and east Georgia, respectively), an increase of the sum of active temperatures above the current (baseline) value in the mountainous (3525ºC) and high-mountainous (2206ºC) areas of Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in the west is 189ºC and 192ºC, respectively. As the equations drafted by considering the above-said future (2020-2050) scenarios (1ºC and 2ºC temperature increase), the sums of active temperatures (>10ºC) and agroclimatic zones with the prospect to grow relevant crops were identified. Three agroclimatic zones were identified in Mtskheta-Mtianeti region in east Georgia. The I mountainous zone spreads from 1000 to 1500 m altitude, the II high-mountainous zone spreads up to 2000 m altitude, and the III high-mountainous zone spreads from 2000 to 2500 m altitude.

Based on the meteorological observations carried out in the areas of the mountainous and high-mountainous areas of Mtskheta-Mtianeti in east Georgia and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in west Georgia, the trend of changing agro-climatic characteristics under the global warming has been revealed. According to the equations drafted by future (2020-2050) scenarios (1ºC and 2ºC temperature increase), the sums of active temperatures (>10ºC) were determined and agroclimatic zones were identified. As per the scenarios developed for global warming, a temperature increase will not have any significant negative impact on the agricultural crops provided it is not higher than the increase forecasted by the scenario. On the contrary, it may be beneficial to grow the crops at different altitudes from the sea level, by considering vertical zoning, where a 1ºC temperature increase will make it possible to grow the crops 100-200 m higher and 200-300 m higher with a 2ºC temperature increase as compared to the present zones.

From the agricultural point of view, Kartli is an important region, which is administratively divided into Shida and Kvemo Kartli regions. Based on the data of multi-year meteorological observations, according to the sums of active temperatures (>10°C) and atmospheric precipitations (mm), agroclimatic zones (4 zones for Shida Kartli, and 5 for Kvemo Kartli) for the distribution of relevant agricultural plants are allocated. For global warming conditions, with composed of equations, the sums of active temperatures are calculated (both, current and scenario with a temperature increase of 2°C). According to which appropriate agro-climatic zones for the purpose of spreading prospective agricultural plants are allocated.

The study of natural events using the Earth Observation Mission (EOS) satellite data has become particularly relevant, which allows for a detailed study of the natural factors causing these events. The aim of the presented research is to reveal the trends of changes in climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation) of mountainous regions of Georgia and to determine the values of vegetation indices (NDVI, HGI) for selected stations. The data of the 60-year period (1961-2021) of the Hydrometeorological Observation Network of Georgia, as well as the data of ESA's CHRIMPS satellite to restore the missing values of climatic parameters and the vegetation indices of NASA's MODIS satellite were used. The Rstat software package is used for the calculation of climatic indices. The variability of the specified climatic parameters in 1991-2021 compared to 1961-1990 was studied. The trends of their change in two 30-year periods are revealed. According to the conducted statistical analysis, regions more vulnerable to climate change were determined. The results of the research are important for the development of adaptation measures and the creation of an early warning system.

Based on the analysis and statistical processing of data of multi-year (in 1948-2017) meteorological observations in the eastern highland regions of Georgia (Akhmeta, Kazbegi, Ninotsminda, Tsalka, Java) a trend of increase/decrease the duration of vegetation periods, sums of active temperatures (>10°C), atmospheric precipitations (mm) and hydrothermal coefficients (HTC), both during the whole vegetation period (IV-X) and during the active vegetation period (VI-VIII) have been identified. The dynamics of their course were depicted by trends. According to the trends, the tendencies of increasing the active temperature sums and decreasing tendencies of atmospheric precipitation (Java is an exception, Shida Kartli region) and hydrothermal coefficients are revealed. In order to present these values clearly, the data of 70-year-long observations mentioned above were divided into two 35-year-long periods. The I period covers the years of 1948-1982, and the II period covers the years of 1983-2017. According to the municipalities of the highland regions (Akhmeta, Kazbegi, Ninotsminda, Tsalka, Java), in the second period, the date of the onset of active air temperatures (>10°C) occurs earlier and the date of the temperature below 10°C ends later as compared to the first period. In the same period, the sums of active temperatures are increased and the vegetation period is prolonged. In the second period, i.e. for the last 35 years, the amount of precipitations and consequently, the hydrothermal coefficients (Java is an exception, where the change of HTC is not observed during the vegetation period) have decreased. Despite this, if the precipitations do not reduce further, they will be sufficient to grow cereal crops, vegetable and other annual crops, as well as succulent roots for animal forage and pasture and hayfield grasses with (one-time) irrigation in some years.

In terms of contemporary global climate warming, the problem of slowing down the ongoing climate change and vulnerability and adaptation to it has become a world-wide issue, which was recognized as the major challenge of the UNO at the beginning of the present century. Consequently, the study of the impact of irregular climate change on the productivity and vulnerability of the agricultural crops and expected transformation of the existing agroclimatic zones is necessary and topical. Based on the 70-year-long meteorological observations (in 1948-2017) carried out in the areas of the mountainous and high-mountainous areas of Mtskheta-Mtianeti in east Georgia and Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti in west Georgia, a trend of changing the agroclimatic features rise/decline in particular, has been identified under the impact of global warming. As per the designed scenario, at 1ºC and 2ºC increase in temperature (in west and east Georgia, respectively), an increase of the sum of active temperatures above the current (baseline) value in the mountainous (3525ºC) and high-mountainous (2206ºC) areas. An increase in the sum of active temperatures in the mountainous (3581ºC) and high-mountainous (2128ºC) areas of Mtskheta-Mtianeti in the east is 486ºC and 500ºC, respectively. As the equations drafted by considering the above-said future (2020-2050) scenarios (1ºC and 2ºC temperature increase), the sums of active temperatures (>10ºC) and agroclimatic zones with the prospect to grow relevant crops were identified.

The location and orographic conditions of Georgia lead to the formation of a variety of climates and landscapes in both the western and eastern parts. The risks arising from these events have a great impact on the sustainable development of the country. The urgency of the emerging problem gives an impetus to the study of natural hazards. The study of natural events using Earth Observation Mission (EOS) satellite data has become particularly relevant, which allows for a detailed study of the natural factors causing these events. The purpose of the presented research is to study the spatial-temporal regularities of natural hydrometeorological events in the coastal regions of Georgia (Adjara, Guria, Samegrelo): extreme temperatures, strong winds, torrential rains and frosts using the Georgian hydrometeorological observation network and satellite data. Strong winds (v>15 m/s) cause great damage to the economy and the population. Continuous series of existing observational data are used to study its variability. Rainfall extremes along with snowmelt on rivers cause landslides and floods. The number of extreme rainy days and their causes are analyzed. Frosts are one of the most dangerous meteorological phenomena for agriculture in the region. The degree of damage to agricultural crops by frost depends on its intensity and duration. Climatic features of glaciers are analyzed. Their distribution in time and space, as well as the dates of the first autumn and last spring frosts and the duration of the frost-free period are established. Taking into account the mentioned characteristics allows selection of effective measures for protection of plants from frosts and reduction of crop losses.

Irrigation leads to an increase in yield in all areas, but in arid and severely arid regions, without it, it is virtually impossible to harvest agricultural crops and conduct more or less efficient agricultural production. The article discusses the data on the increase in yield of agricultural crops as a result of irrigation according to the climatic zones of Georgia. Also, the effect of the amount of water supplied on the yield. Irrigation before sowing is not accidental and cannot be explained by the lack of irrigation water alone. Irrigation before sowing on brackish soils is a necessary measure. Before sowing on such soils, irrigation is carried out with a large rate of irrigation (1000-2000 m3) and easily soluble salts are washed into the lower layer. In this way, the seed gets into a relatively salinized area and germination is more normal, since the presence of easily soluble salts is more noticeable at the beginning of germination and development.

The main direction of viticulture in Gardabani municipality is the production of high-quality white, dry, naturally sweet and dessert wines. Based on this, it is important to determine the correct irrigation regime, the necessity of which was revealed from the assessment of the soil and climatic conditions. In order to determine the need for irrigation, the volumetric weight of the soil sample of Gardabani municipality and the threshold water range were investigated in the Agricultural Hydromelioration Laboratory of the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Biosystems Engineering of the Georgian Technical University. Also, the share of the occupied area of each agricultural plot of the study region was determined, on the basis of which the values of the hydraulic modulus were calculated and the graph of the hydraulic modulus was constructed. which indicates unequal distribution of water demand. The amount of water needed for agriculture was calculated according to irrigation periods and a water demand curve was constructed.

Catastrophic natural disasters became more frequent during the era of the modern scientific-technical revolution. In the mountainous region of Georgia. Floods and they fall into this category of natural disasters. Processes The processes took place and still take place in many areas of Georgia. It is noteworthy that these events have a great impact on the surrounding areas, the population and their agricultural activities. Racha-Lechkhumi and lower Svaneti are distinguished from the regions of Georgia, where Hydrometeorological natural disasters are constantly occurring. The area belongs to the subtropical climate region of the sea. Permanent snow and glacier areas are also represented here. The soil is presented in the form of humus - carbonate. These soils even contribute to the development of the vine culture.

Natural disasters threaten viticulture. Floods and Floods, which often occur here, have always been a threat to the best varieties. Such floods occurred in 2014, 1018 and 2020. These processes have a long history. There is currently a need to study this permanently Events to timely address the threats that hinder viticulture as a sector. Also, protection measures should be taken to help prevent a natural disaster in a timely manner.

Catastrophic natural disasters became more frequent during the era of the modern scientific-technical revolution. In the mountainous region of Georgia. Floods and they fall into this category of natural disasters. Processes The processes took place and still take place in many areas of Georgia. It is noteworthy that these events have a great impact on the surrounding areas, the population and their agricultural activities. Racha-Lechkhumi and lower Svaneti are distinguished from the regions of Georgia, where Hydrometeorological natural disasters are constantly occurring. The area belongs to the subtropical climate region of the sea. Permanent snow and glacier areas are also represented here. The soil is presented in the form of humus - carbonate. These soils even contribute to the development of the vine culture.

Natural disasters threaten viticulture. Floods and Floods, which often occur here, have always been a threat to the best varieties. Such floods occurred in 2014, 1018 and 2020. These processes have a long history. There is currently a need to study this permanently Events to timely address the threats that hinder viticulture as a sector. Also, protection measures should be taken to help prevent a natural disaster in a timely manner.

Based on the analysis and statistical processing of data of multi-year (in 1948-2017) meteorological observations in the eastern dry subtropical conditions of Georgia (Kvemo Kartli) a trend of increase/decrease the duration of vegetation periods, sums of active temperatures (>10°C), atmospheric precipitations (mm) and hydrothermal coefficients (HTC) have been identified. In order to present these values clearly, the data of 70-year-long observations mentioned above were divided into two 35-year-long periods. The I period covers the years of 1948-1982, and the II period covers the years of 1983-2017. Taking into account the increase in the sums of active temperatures (>10°C), a dry subtropical agroclimatic zone has been allocated for the distribution of prospective crops.

The temporal change tendency of agro-climatic characteristics for the vegetation period in the Mtskheta-Mtianeti region has been revealed taking into account climate change; In particular, the vegetation period prolongation in the arid subtropical, mountainous and highland zones of the region and the increase of the active temperature sum (>10°C), and the decrease dynamics of atmospheric precipitation (mm) and hydrothermal coefficient (HTC). According to the current (basic) and future scenarios (2020-2049), agro-climatic zones are allocated taking into account the temperature increase by 2°C, with recommendations for the spread of appropriate perspective crops by the height above the sea level. The forecast equation for the potato crop is drawn according to the temperature of the latter scenario. It is established that according to the future scenario (2020-2049), the increase of the projected temperature by 2°C will not have a negative impact on agricultural crops.

Agroclimatic features in mountainous and high-mountainous zones of Shida Kartli are assessed. Based on the analysis and statistical processing of multi-year meteorological observation data (in 1948-2017), as well as future scenario (2ºC temperature increase), the duration of vegetation periods, sums of active temperatures (>10°C) and atmospheric precipitations (mm) and hydrothermal coefficient has been identified a trend of increase/decrease of mountainous and high-mountainous zones. The data of 70-year-long observations for comparison were divided into two 35-year-long periods. The first period covers the years of 1948-1982, and the second period covers the years of 1983-2017. According to the scenario, in case of temperature increase by 2°C, there are allocated the mountain and high-mountainous agroclimatic zones for distribution of prospective crops. 

On the background of global warming, agroclimatic features in mountainous and high-mountainous zones of Samtskhe-Javakheti are assessed. Based on the analysis and statistical processing of multi-year meteorological observation data (in 1948-2017), as well as future scenario (2ºC temperature increase), the duration of vegetation periods, sums of active temperatures (>10°C) and atmospheric precipitations (mm) and hydrothermal coefficient has been identified a trend of increase/decrease of mountainous and high-mountainous zones. According to the scenario, in case of temperature increase by 2°C, there are allocated the mountain and high-mountainous agroclimatic zones for distribution of prospective crops.

The results of our studies evidence the impact of global climate warming on Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti humid subtropical, mountainous and high-mountainous regions of west Georgia. It is obviously responsible for the increased sums of active temperatures, prolonged vegetation period and decreased precipitation. 

A long-term of meteorological observational data (1970-2017) is used to study the impact of weather and climate extremes. It includes the estimation of extreme temperature, precipitation and wind data. The results were used for agro-climatic zoning of the territory of Georgia and also, recommendations are given for adaptation and mitigation measures.

Trends of increase / decrease of vegetation periods of dry subtropical, mountainous and highland zones, sums of active temperatures (> 10°C), atmospheric precipitation (mm) and HTC are established. Agro-climatic characteristics were calculated for the study zones, which were reflected in the trends. It is estimated that during the last 35 years in the II period (1983-2017) weak droughts decreased (by 6%) compared to the I period (1948-1982), while the frequency of moderate (9%) and strong (23%) droughts increased.

We have separated corresponding distribution zones by altitude for various vine sorts cultivated in Georgia. In the first zone, where sum of active temperatures is more than 3500°C all sorts of vine may be generated. In the second zone, sum of active temperature is 3000°C and more. In this zone, middle and early ripening sorts may be produced. As for the third zone, where sum of active temperatures is 2500°C, only early ripening vines are to be grown.

At increase of the sum of active temperatures above the current (baseline) value in the humid subtropical zone is 223ºC, in the mountainous and high-mountainous areas of Samegrelo - Zemo Svaneti is 189ºC and 192ºC, respectively. The vegetation period in the humid subtropical zone has increased by 12 dyes, in the mountainous and high-mountainous regions - by 11 and 9 days, respectively. Under the same scenario, the trends of decreasing atmospheric precipitations are also seen, the exception Zugdidi Municipality. Agro-climatic zones are identified.

In order to distribution of winter wheat in western and eastern Georgia the regression equations are compiled and the sums of active temperatures (>10°) was calculated. It turned out that in case of 1°C increase in air temperature according to the scenario, the sum of active temperatures will increase by 220-250°C on average, and it will increase by 440-480°C in case of a 2°C temperature increase. The area of distribution of winter wheat has expanded at the expense of vertical zoning. The area of distribution in Western Georgia as compared to the existing (basic) area of distribution has risen by 170-200 m on average, and by 350-400 m in Eastern Georgia.

A regression equation to fix the date of transfer of the air temperature above 10ºC in the vegetation period is deduced. The weather phenomena threatening the branch of agriculture in the given region (such as frosting, hail, drought and strong winds) and their occurrence at different altitudes above sea level are described. The seasonality and intensity of the mentioned phenomena are identified as well. In particular, a regression equation to fix the first days of expected frostings (the first and last frostings) is deduced. By considering the sums of active temperatures depending on vertical zoning, there are 4 agro-ecological zones identified with the areas of prospective crops.

For the Mtskheta-Mtianeti region during the vegetation period, which is mainly determined by the growth and development of plants, crop formation and productivity, trends of change of agro-climatic indicators - increase/decrease (sums of active temperatures and atmospheric precipitations, hydrothermal coefficient) under conditions of global warming is revealed. Which can be determined the dynamics of their change in time (1948-2017). Taking into account global warming, by the temperature increase (scenario, rise of temperature by 2°C) the agro-ecological zones are allocated. 

The system of organic agriculture is based on the modern scientific achievements and for long time it satisfies the inhabitants with ecological pure agricultural products.The modern world practice in organic agriculture is widely introduced in Switzerland, Germany, England, Holland, Russia, etc. Dynamics of growth of organic agriculture is directly connected with the results of environment pollution, which has a unhealthy influence on people, flora and fauna, cultural and historical monuments, and so on.

In terms of global warming, as the temperature increases, the centuries-old climatic parameters of different locations change and agricultural indices determining the development of productivity of agricultural crops change also. In terms of the changed environment, most economic damage may be inflicted to non-adaptive, vulnerable branches, including agrarian sector in the first instance. In this connection, the studies identified the changing tendency (increase/fall) of agroclimatic indices (sums of active temperatures (>10°C) and atmospheric precipitations (mm), hydrothermal coefficients) caused by global warming in the vegetation period in five regions of Georgia - in particular, the trends of increasing the sums of active temperatures and decreasing indices of atmospheric precipitations and hydrothermal coefficients are observed what evidences more frequent droughts of different types. 

Tendency of global warming was observed on the territory of Georgia. Increase of the temperature in Eastern and Western Georgia is 0.4 and 0.2°C, respectively. According to scenarios, at the increase of temperature by 2 and 1°C active temperature sums (>10°C) increase by 440-480°C and 220-250°C in Eastern and Western Georgia, respectively. Sums of increase and decrease (in %) of atmospheric precipitation (mm) are taken into consideration according to grapevine distribution areas. By the scenario worked out at the increase of temperature by 1°C the duration of the vegetation period (day) increases and amounts to 12 days on average, and at the temperature increase by 2°C the duration amounts 20 days. In this study, zones of distribution by sea levels of various vine sorts on the territory of Georgia are considered taking into account supposed increase of temperature. For forecasting of coming phases - flowerings and ripen are made corresponding regression of equations.

Remote sensing technology is successfully used for frequent monitoring of carbon sequestration in agroforestry, but the utility of this technology is dependent upon many factors. Different sources of remotely sensed data provide alternative types of data. Remotely sensed data that is acquired from visible-near infrared (VIS-NIR) detectors is most commonly used in vegetation detection. The most common product from VIS-NIR sources is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which is an index of the greenness of the vegetation being monitored.

The agrometeorological forecasts allow benefiting from the weather conditions to realize relevant agrotechnical measures with optimal terms. In order to make forecasts, one needs certain data, which are initial characteristics (predictors). The basic observations of the following characteristics are accomplished: air temperature, atmospheric precipitations, soil productive moisture (at 0-20, 0-30 cm depth), average plant height, etc. 

The one of Earth Observing System (EOS) program component is the investigation of influence of Earth vegetation onlarge-scale global processes. The most applicable product from satellite observation is Normalized Difference Vegetation Index that is used in observation on vegetation. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is an index of plant“greenness” or photosynthetic activity, and is one of the most commonly used vegetation indices. Vegetation index is important ecosystem variable widely used in variety of bio-geophysical applications. 

The multi-year studies by the Institute of Hydrometeorology on the base of Paravani mountainous (2200 m a.s.l., Ninotsminda Region) agrometeorological basis by application of organic fertilizer and bioenergy activator, ,,bioragis'' showed that the content of heavy metals and nitrates is in the framework of the maximum permissible concentration (MPC) in the received harvest (red beet, barley and other spices). The test site is characterized by favorable soil and climatic conditions and high energy resources, which largely determine the adoption of ecologically pure crops. There is established a high correlation of agro-climatic factors, organic fertilizers, and test crop harvest and are made appropriate regression equations.

The impact of different doses of organic fertilizer (10, 15 and 20 t/ha) on the growth and development of experimental crops was identified and used to fix the content of heavy metals and nitrates in the harvested experimental crops. Correlations between the ecological factors of the environment, organic fertilizer and harvest were established, and relevant regression equations were designed on their basis what allows identifying the rate of the ecologically pure harvest (t/ha). In the high-mountainous regions of Georgia, one can distinguish two different agro-ecological zones meeting the demands of these crops to the agro-climatic factors - the sum of active air temperatures of over 10ºC, sum of atmospheric precipitations (mm) in the warm period of the year.

Geographical science is facing new challenges in Georgia. It is related on the one hand to the assessment of the current state of the country and geo-ecological problems, on the other hand to the requirements of practice and socio-economic development prospects. Among the requirements of the practice are topical issues such as the new orientation of land use and the optimal use of the natural resource potential of the regions.

According to the scenarios (increase of temperatures by 2ºC) on the territory of Borjomi agroecological conditions (active temperature sums, atmospheric precipitations, duration of vegetation period, abs. maximum and abs. minimum temperatures, winds, types of droughts) are estimated. There are for agroecological zones allocated, to grow appropriate crops. The results of the study evidence that the global warming (by the scenarios, increase of temperatures by 2ºC) impact on the increase of active temperatures sums consequently, the distribution area of the crops will expand and the zones will spread higher by 200-300 m (a.s.l.) as compared to the present areas of distribution.

Growth, development and productivity of crops in Kvemo Kartli region are mainly provided by agroclimatic conditions. Sum of active temperature (>10°C) in the region fluctuates within the range of 1900-4160°C according to the districts. As a result of uneven distribution of atmospheric presipitation during the vegetation period, provision of the soil humidity in the region is not uniform at different phases of crops, development. in such conditions crops undergo water deficit, which affects the yield.Temperature is one of the factors essential for growth, development and productivity of crops. Generally the presented indexes are satisfactory for the production of most crops. On the basis of the agroclimatic indexes 5 zones are denoted. 

Remote sensing technology is successfully used for frequent monitoring of carbon sequestration in agroforestry, but the utility of this technology is dependent upon many factors. Different sources of remotely sensed data provide alternative types of data. Remotely sensed data that is acquired from visible-near infrared (VIS-NIR) detectors is most commonly used in vegetation detection. The most common product from VIS-NIR sources is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which is an index of the greenness of the vegetation being monitored.

The change trend (downward, upward) of agriculture development agroclimatic indices has been revealed due to global warming in Kakheti region. Which causes extension of vegetation period, temperature sum increasing and basically decreasing of precipitation sum. Therefore the decreasing tendency of hydrothermal coefficient index has been observed. This indicates on the increasing of weak and average droughts. The relevant measures have to been conducted against this negative event.

The agroclimatic indices trend has been revealed for Kvemo Kartli region (by municipalities) caused by global warming. Particularly active temperature, precipitation sum, also hydrothermal coefficient (htc) index changes have been revealed according elevations.

 Based on conducted research active temperature sum increasing, precipitation and (htc) decreasing have been detected during vegetation period. Considering above mentioned changes for agriculture normal productivity to conduct relevant agrotechnical measures have to be recommended.

In accordance with the above-mentioned scenarios, the sum of active temperatures (above 10°C) was calculated. For the regions with the potential to grow the given crops successfully, it turned out that in case of 1°C increase in air temperature according to the scenario, the sum of active temperatures will increase by 220-250°C on average, and it will increase by 440-480°C in case of 2°C temperature increase. In Western Georgia, upon the temperature increase by 1ºC winter wheat might spread up to 1450-1650 m above sea level, in Eastern Georgia upon the temperature increase by 2ºC up to 1750-1800 m.

The criteria for and definition of a global vegetation index includes: the index should maximize sensitivity to plant biophysical parameters, preferably with a linear response in order that some degree of sensitivity be available for a wide range of vegetation conditions and to facilitate validation and calibration of the index; the index should normalize canopy background (brightness) variations for consistent spatial and temporal comparisons; the index should be applicable to the generation of a global product, allowing precise and consistent, spatial and temporal comparisons of vegetation conditions; the index should be coupled to key biophysical parameters as part of the validation effort, performance, and quality control.

Under the increase of the concern for food security in the world, mainly caused by water resources shortages, the forecast and determination of crop yield at regional scale has been considered as a strategic topic. In this research water-driven FAO-AquaCrop model has been used for assessment of climate change impact on current and future yield and crop-water requirement of the main agronomic crops in Sighnaghi municipality, Khakheti region using 50-years daily weather data.

In connection to the global climate change, regional model ECHAM4 and A2 future scenario is used to forecast the local climate change (2020-2050, example of Sagarejo). In accordance with the above-mentioned scenarios, provision (%) the sum of active temperatures (above 10°C) and probability (%) the absolute maximum and the absolute minimum temperatures was calculated. In case of 2°C increase in temperature under the scenario, climate change (2040-2050) will not negative impact on the growth and vegetation of crops.

Provide of crops with heat and atmospheric precipitations in Imereti region are considered. The equations of regress for practical use of the forecast of provide with heat of crops in the vegetative period are worked out. Taking into account the sums of active temperatures and atmospheric precipitation 5 agroclimatic zones for distribution of crops in the vegetative period are allocated. The Dangerous meteorological phenomena - frosts, drought, strong winds are considered. For the purpose of operative service of agriculture the forecast equations are made. 

According to materials of the long-term meteorological observations (Mtskheta-Mtianeti Region’s) are calculated corresponding of agro-meteorological indices - sum of air temperatures >10ºC, sum of atmospheric precipitations (mm). On the basis of which Agroecological zones for propagation of corresponding crops are selected.

The researches have shown that certain bands of radar data can be useful for estimating forest canopy texture and roughness. The following data have to be collested: forest tree species, canopy crown descriptions, above ground biomass, incident radiation, leaf orientation of the dominant tress and other obsevation. The following data mith be collected during the time of RS data collection: above ground biomass, below ground biomass and soil organic carbon and for biomass estimation allometric equation. Measuring and monitoring requires prvisions for quality assurance (QA) and quality control (QC) procedures.

Taking into account global warming, according to the scenario at increase of temperature by 1-2ºС (accordingly), according to vertical zoning of a grapevine are determined the sums of active (≥10ºC) temperatures (240-4800C and more, accordingly). In zones of distribution of a grapevine existing today, according to the scenario, at increase of temperature by 1ºС the grapevine in the Western Georgia will grow about 100-150 m higher, and in Eastern Georgia at increase of temperature by 2ºC it will extend about 200-300 m higher in comparison with zones of distribution existing today. In zones of distribution of a grapevine is envisioned increasing and decreasing of the sum of atmospheric precipitations during the vegetative period. 

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In connection to the global climate change, a regional model ECHAM4 and A2 future scenario is used to forecast the local climate change by calculating the anticipated data of meteorological observations of the climatic parameters of the future (2020-2050) for Akhaltsikhe. According to the scenario (at 1.5°C temperature increase), the sum of active temperatures will increase by 500°C on average. Duration of the vegetation period is 176 days on the average (basis), and under the scenario of future - 192. Agro-climatic zones for distribution of respectively agricultural crops according to the scenario are allocated. 

The 1940-2005 year period data of hydrometeorological observation net have been used in presented article. Based on this temperature and precipitation variation regime also agroclimatic character distribution in warm period have been ascertained in Kolkheti Lowland subtropical zone with possible spread of agricultures.

According to  materials of the  long-term meteorological observations are calculated corresponding of agro-meteorological indices (sum of air temperatures >10º, sum of atmospheric precipitations (mm), relative air humidity (%), deficiency of air humidity (mb), number days of without frost period, hydrothermal coefficient) for the vegetation period (IV-X) are presented. Table representing provision by sum of active temperatures are given. The estimation of dangerous meteorological phenomena for agricultural crops is considered. Directions of prevailing winds are established in order to plant shelter wind belts. Agro-climatic zones for propagation of corresponding crops are selected.

Aspects of global climate change are considered. According to the scenarios air temperature increase by 1 and 2° are developed (for Western and East Georgia, respectively). For definition of temperatures sums (>10°) under the scenarios increase by 1 and 2° the equation of regress is compiled. By the equation is defined and allocated zone of distribution of winter wheat. At increase of existing temperatures by 1 and 2° the active temperature sums is raises on average by 220-250º and 440-480° (respectively). In Western Georgia, upon the temperature increase by 1º winter wheat might spread up to 1450-1650 m above sea level, in Eastern Georgia up to 1750-1800 m.

The date of long-term observations conducted at the hydrometeorological stations existing in Georgia have been analyzed. თhe dates of temperature rise above 100C and active temperature sums together with the locations’ altitudes a.s.l. A close correlation has been detected upon temperature rise of 1 and 20C (respectively) under the developed scenarios: R=0.99 for Western Georgia, R=0.98 for Eastern Georgia and R=0.97 for all Georgia. Based on the established correlation, regression equations were formulated.

Based on the considered official materials, a conclusion was made suggesting that the reduction of the rural population in 2000-2004 was caused by the negative processes in the natural increase and migration processes. Despite the positive values of the natural increase coefficient in 2007-2008, the population decrease was caused by the negative migration processes. As for the population increase from 2009, it was caused by the impact of positive natural increase and migration balance, with the migration processes as more important of the two components.

Taking into account climate change under the developed scenario (at rise in temperature on 2ºС) the regress equation is worked out. By the equations is defined and allocated 5 vertical agroclimatic zones of distribution of perspective crops. Agrometeorological forecasting methods of crops yield have been created (winter wheat, corn and potato). It is established, that in the vegetative period, under the scenario at increase of existing temperatures by 2ºС the sums of active temperatures is raises on average by 450-500ºС.

Proceeding from global warming for territory of Sagarejo municipality the sums of active temperatures (> 10°C) are defined. It is established, that the active temperature sum totals 3470°C on the average, and under the scenario of future (at 2°C temperature increase) - 4160°C. Noted sum of temperature provides high productivity of agricultural crops and reception of two yields. Duration of the vegetative period 198 days on the average, and under the scenario of future - 220 days.

Agroecological zones for distribution of respectively agricultural crops according to the present and under the scenario are allocated.

According to the researches conducted in Georgia the air temperature has increased and reached 0.2-0.4°. If it continues this way by 2020-2050 years temperature will increase by 1-2°. That’s why, we must know in advance the temperature regime and its influence on the national economy, especially on agriculture. Follows from this, in conditions of climate global change, It is necessary to consider of heat provision of agricultural crops according to years. Because of that, under the scenarios (2020-2050) of temperature raise by 2° worked out. According to this scenarios for forecast of vegetation periods with heat provision of regression equation were formulated. In particular, on example of the humid subtopics of Adjara region. Ander the scenarios for raise temperature by 2° the nomogram to definition of heat provision of various agriculture crops is compiled.

Proceeding from global warming under the developed scenario (at rise in temperature on 2°) for territory municipality Borjomi the sums of active temperatures (> 10°) are defined, which makes 3570°, and present - 2930°. The temperature sum, received under the scenario, provides achieve of two harvest. Duration of the vegetative period is increased for 20 days. 4 agroecological zones for distribution of corresponding agricultural crops are allocated.

Scenarios of (2020-2050) distributions of zones agricultural crops and reception of two yields with the account of global warming for district Dedoplistskaro are developed. It is established that the sum of active temperatures on the current makes 3360°, and under the future scenario at increase in temperature on 2° makes 3930°. Noted the temperature sum provides growth-development, high productivity of agricultural crops and reception of two yields. Duration of the vegetative period averages - 190 days, under the scenario of the future - 210 days. Agroclimatic zones under the scenario current and the future are allocated.

Influence of climate change (in accordance by vertical zonality) for the temperatures sums is given (above 10 °). For definition of temperatures sums under the scenarios increase by 1 and 2° for high-mountainous Western and East Georgia (respectively), the equation of regress is compiled. By the equation is defined and allocates three vertical аgro-ecological zones of distribution of perspective agricultural crops. In high-mountainous аgro-ecological zones at increase of existing temperatures by 1 and 2° the active temperature sums is raises on average by 240-260° and 480-500°(respectively).  

Influence of climate change (in accordance by vertical zonality) for the temperatures sums is given (above 10 °). For definition of temperatures sums under the scenarios increase by 1 and 2° for high-mountainous Western and East Georgia (respectively), the equation of regress is compiled. By the equation is defined and allocates three vertical аgro-ecological zones of distribution of perspective agricultural crops. In high-mountainous аgro-ecological zones at increase of existing temperatures by 1 and 2° the active temperature sums is raises on average by 240-260° and 480-500°(respectively).  

A trend for a rise in air temperature in Eastern Georgia against Western Georgia is revealed. In connection with the above, account for a rise in temperature by 1 and 2°C (respectively) for agroclimatic zones is taken into consideration. According to the completed regression equations, the effective heat sums at a 10000-gradation of air temperature (above 100) are determined. Five agroclimatic zones for distribution of respective crops are marked out for the territory of Georgia in the case of a rise by 1 and 2° under the developed scenarios. According to the scenarios, in the case of a rise in temperature by 1 and 2°, the effective heat sum exceeds on average the effective heat sum in the currently existing zones by 200-300 degrees and 400-500 degrees (respectively).

The received result of calculations enable us to make a conclusion on quite high effectiveness of the offered methodic, which allows for the specific of climatic changes to forecast change of productivity of crops and assess the height of the upper border of existing and tranforming agroclimatic zones of their crops and assess the height of the upper border of their dissemination. There have been offered methods on the basis of application of the model type ,,weather-harvest''. through considering climatic changes, it enables: determination of expected change of productivity of agricultural crops; assessment of sensitiveness of crop productivity in regard to variations of climatic parameters; planning of upper border of current and transformed agroclimatic zones of dissemination of agricultural crops. 

As a result of the analysis and data processing of meteorological observations are established close correlation connections - between date of air temperature rise above 10°, the sum of active temperatures and altitude above sea level. On the basis of the established connections the equations of regress are made, according to which sums of active temperatures for agroclimatic zones are defined. 5 agroclimatic zones for distribution of various agricultural crops are allocated. According to the scenario, upon temperature rise of 1° for citrus, vineyards, tea, corn on grain, a winter wheat and other cultures the zone of distribution will go up to 100-150 m. above sea level, than nowadays exists, and at increase in temperature on 2° zones will go up to 200-300 m. a.s.l. 

The basic producers of vine in Georgia are regions: Kakheti, Kvemo and Shida Kartli, Imereti, Racha-Lechkumi and in regions Samegrelo, Guria, Ajara and Abkhazia on some microclimatic conditions industrial wine growing is developed. Phenological phase of vine - juices movement begins during when the average daily air temperature rises above 10°, and soil temperature is 8-9°. Blooming of bud in territory of Georgia begins in 8-16 days after transition of average daily air temperature through 10°. The beginning of flowering of vines is the second period of vegetation. Duration of this period (days) depends from agrometeorological and climatic conditions. The period of flowering vine is defined by conditions of weather and it can will proceed till 10-15 days. Favorable temperatures of flowering is 18-20°.

The Establishment terms of coming phenological phases has the big practical value for duly carrying out of agrotechnical actions and receptions of qualitative and guaranteed yield. For forecasting of coming phases - flowerings and ripen are made corresponding regression of equations. 

 On the basis of many years meteorological observation the estimation is given: the lengths of solar light; absolutely maximal and minimal temperatures of air; temperatures of soil in the depths of 5 and 20 sm; numbers of days with atmospheric precipitations (≥5 mm). It is noted, that the considered region up to height of 1000-1500 m a.s.l. during the vegetation period is provided by the sum of temperatures, that is important for development grain, grapes, fruit, vegetable and other cultures. The close relation among absolutely minimal temperature of air, a snow cover, temperature of soil in the surface and depths of 5 sm are reveled, on the basis of which are made corresponding inequlities of regresses. According to agroclimatic resources calculated agroclimatic indices for the warm period (IV-X), which up to heigh of 1400-1500 m (above sea level) are satisfactory for production of agricultural crops.

Organic agriculture relies mainly on local soil-climatic resources and depends on the maintenance of ecological balance. The purpose of organic agriculture is the following: the production of ecologically safe products, long-term maintenance and sustainable increase of fertility, reducing contamination of all kinds that may accompany agricultural activity. Climatic and agrometeorological conditions determine the succassful fulfilment of this system. For agroclimatic conditions of the high-mountainous zones of Samtskhe-Javakheti a probability curve (in per cents) for sowing of cultural products and dating of the main phases is built up. A time-table of the provision of the number of days with more than 5 ml. precipitation is built up and the optimal terms of watering the soil are indicated. 

Doctoral Thesis Referee

Master Theses Supervisor

Doctoral Thesis Supervisor/Co-supervisor

Scientific editor of monographs in foreign languages

Scientific editor of a monograph in Georgian

Editor-in-Chief of a peer-reviewed or professional journal / proceedings

Review of a scientific professional journal / proceedings

Member of the editorial board of a peer-reviewed scientific or professional journal / proceedings

Participation in a project / grant funded by an international organization

Participation in a project / grant funded from the state budget

Patent authorship

Membership of the Georgian National Academy of Science or Georgian Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Membership of an international professional organization

Membership of the Conference Organizing / Program Committee

National Award / Sectoral Award, Order, Medal, etc.

Honorary title

Monograph

Handbook

Research articles in high impact factor and local Scientific Journals

Publication in Scientific Conference Proceedings Indexed in Web of Science and Scopus