Tsitsana Basilashvili

The paper deals with the current acute problem of water falls underscoring that the natural conditions in Georgia (location, terrain hydrometeorology, etc.) are favorable for high water floods, which is facilitated by the heavy rains caused by the humid air of the Black Sea. Because of this, floods in West Georgia are higher and more frequent than in the East. Floods are especially small and rare in its southern part. A map of flood regions compiled according to the magnitudes of their maximum costs is provided.

New database of natural hazard events for the republic of Georgia is presented and the results of zoning necessary for interpreting the compilated data are shown

Along with the ongoing global warming on our planet, the number of catastrophic natural events has increased. However, today, reclaiming forest areas, cutting trees and fires lead to a decrease in the process of photosynthesis, which, in its turn, becomes the reason of the sun’s excess heat energy causing global warming, oxygen depletion, and the emergence of new viral, bacterial and chronic diseases. Nowadays, in order to mitigate the climate change, for the biosphere and the environmental safety, special attention should be paid to the forest cover protection and expansion across the world, reforestation and land cultivation should become everyone’s business. In the agricultural fields, windproof forest strips should be planted, which will help increase the yield.

As a result of the development of the industries on the Earth, carbon dioxide increases by 20 million tons in the Earth atmosphere. The only thing that can absorb it is green plants. In order to regulate the climate and preserve biodiversity, it is necessary to study the forest and develop preventive and adapted measures for their protection and reproduction.

The climate change influence on the number of days with hail during the warm period has been studied. Comparison of the number of days with hail for 30 meteorological stations in 2006-2021 and 1941-1990 showed that in the second period of time, compared to the first period, the number of days with hail at the 18 stations decreased, at the 10 stations - did not change, and increased at only one station (Keda).

It is noted that forest cover in mountain areas is protects settlements, roads and fields from floods and mud streams, erosion processes, landslides and avalanches. Forest is regulating the water regime of mountain rivers curtaining floods and preventing them from drying up. It improves ground water quality and increases their debate. Therefore, in all mountainous regions, special attention should be paid to the protection and expansion of forest cover.

The specification of river runoff long-range parameters and features of their anticipated change has serious practical importance for water management calculations in scientific. The implementation of recommended adaptation measures on the basic of river runoff projection will allow to slow down or stop desertification processes and avert the ecological peril. They are highly important and significant for the prevention of hazardous events at the background of progressing climate warming.

The mountain forest is the main factor that facilitates the transfer of atmospheric precipitation to the depth of the soil, thus regulating the liquid surface runoff improving the water balance and protecting the river from the drying. The main thing is that forests protect the inhabited areas and populations.

For the water management calculations in order to present the water-related disasters of main rivers, the maximum discharge parameters are specified. To mitigate the hazards of floods a complex is proposed, in particular: purification of river beds, reinforcing and complete construction of river bank protecting edifices. With the use of the multifactorial model, we obtained the forecasts of floods and flooding in advance and accuracy level.

Consider the existing difficult environmental circumstances in Georgia caused by both climate change and anthropogenic impact. The difficult ecological situation in the city of Tbilisi caused by air polution and contamination of the water river Mtkvari are investigated. In order to mitigate the negative phenomena from the ongoing processes corresponding measures have been recommended.

The rates of annual changes in the maximum discharge of rivers have been established. It has been revealed that floods intensive and maximum water discharges increase on the two rivers fed by glacial waters, while on the others the opposite trend has been observed - the deminish. The obtained evaluation on the river water flow change is of vital importance for planning the water management systems and for the environmental safety.

The forest absorbs carbon dioxide and releases large amounts of oxygen, regulates microclimate (humidity, temperature and wind). The forest is a powerful filter for cleaning air and water from harmful impurities. The forest also provides many types of food and medical products. Therefore, in all countries of the world, special attention should be paid to the protection and expansion of forest cover.

The importance of forest cover in mountain regions is described. It is noted that despite a great benefit, humans are not caring for it and resulting from unsystematic felling forests are becoming sparse, are losing their protective functions. It is pointed out that for the present time the environment protection and rational use of forest resources is the global problem of paramount importance.

In consequence of climate warming temperature rises, increase in evaporation and decrease in atmosphere precipitation and in the river water flows are anticipated in Eastern Georgia. Keeping it in with a view to mitigating anticipated negative consequences, a complex of adaptive measures has been developed, the implementation of which will ensure slowing down or preventing of the desertion process, safety of the environment, increase in crops and harvest and improving economic well-being of the population here.

The maximum discharge parameters, the scope of the expected developments and probable values have been ascertained. By taking into account the trends of their dynamic over the years, the values of their annual changes have been established. The obtained figures are of practical significance for designing constructions, carrying out economic activities properly and safety reasons. With a view to mitigating negative consequences of high waters, recommendations for avoiding huge material losses have been drawn.

As a result of a study trends the rates of annual changes in the maximum discharges of rivers have been established. It has been revealed that floods intensify and maximum water discharges increase on the rivers fed by glacial waters, while on the others the opposite trend has been observed - they diminish. In order to mitigate the negative phenomena from the ongoing processes, measures for reduction the material damage have been recommended.

In Eastern Georgia with vast arable lands evaporation and desertification are increasing, while the precipitation and river flow for irrigation are decreasing. As a result, the crops - the source of sustenance of the people here - are decreasing. Therefore, it is essential to build water reservoirs where water of high water flow periods can be conserved for irrigation purposes in summer. With the aim of regulating river flow and protecting the territory from disasters, the forest cover size should be expanded. In order to economize on water dripping irrigation with mulching films or using rain measuring aggregates is recommend.

The river maximal discharge parameters are specified, the trends of their changes over the years and probable significance of water discharge have been calculated. According tendency of dynamics the flooding strengthening has been revealed on rivers nourished by glaciers, on the contrary in other rivers they reduced, in some regions evaporation has been increased and desertification has been detected. For mitigation negative impacts of those processes the recommendations of prevention measures are drafted.

Increase of air temperature and decrease of precipitation is expected in research area according to our investigation. This will cause reduction of the water resources. For this reason it is important to regulate river run-off and conduct prevention measurements: forestation, build up a small reservoirs, working out hydrological forecasts methods.

In the long run, some of the glaciers will disappear, which will have a negative impact on water resources, water supply will lower and the country’s economic development will be halted. For protecting river waters from the elements, for their rational utilization and effective and safe exploitation having forecasts of water flows is vital.

Hydrological features of water resources flowing into the Zhinvali water reservoir have been ascertained for different seasons, trends of changes over the years have been identified, expected scope of changes has been determined and probable meanings of water discharge have been established. By applying multifactor statistical models methodology for forecasting water discharges.

The role of forests in the conditions of global warming is considered. The main cause of global warming is considered to be high level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere, which can only be absorbed by green plants through photosynthesis as a result of which oxygen is produced, which, in its turn, is a life source of all living beings on Earth.

By applying multifactoral model forecasting equations have been worked out for the Alazani water flow for the whole vegetation period The long-term prognosis allow rational and thorough planning of water resources utilization, which in its turn will boost crops and ensure safety in the second quarter characterized with high water flows and flooding.

Hydrological qualities and characteristics of the waters flowing into the water reservoir have been ascertained for different seasons; the trends of their changes over the years have been established. The obtained results will allow planning how to rationally utilize and regulate water resources for irrigation, water supply and power generating purposes.

Probable indexes of maximum water expenditure of major rivers have been calculated and the trends of their changes over many years have been established. They significantly increase for the rivers feeding with glacier water while they decrease on all the others.

Hydrological qualities and characteristics of the waters flowing into the water reservoir have been ascertained for different seasons; the trends of their changes over the years have been established. The obtained results will allow planning how to rationally utilize and regulate water resources for irrigation, water supply and power generating purposes.

Probable indexes of maximum water expenditure of major rivers have been calculated and the trends of their changes over many years have been established. They significantly increase for the rivers feeding with glacier water while they decrease on all the others.

Long-term (from 3 to 5 months) forecast methodology for high water periods of Georgian rivers have been worked out. The methodology can be used to make yearly and timely forecasts and be utilized by hydrological entities.

Main components of the existing in Georgia river water resources are: energy production, irrigation, water provision, recreation, tourism and sport. In Georgia abundant rains take place, thus causing catastrophic flooding on rivers. In summer and winter water amount decreases 10 times and irrigation, water provision and energy production is impeded. Those, the lack of water just like the excess amount of water causes damage. We have elaborated multiple - factor statistical model for a forecast, which by means of different mathematical criteria and methods can simultaneously research the increase of the timeliness of forecasts and the level of their precision.

In recent decades as a result of more frequent droughts in Kakheti region are already damaged hundreds of thousands hectares of fertile Lands. It is expected to increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation. In such conditions it is possible making danger of desertification. To mitigate the negative effects of desertification is recommended set of adaptation actives.

According tendency of dynamics the flooding strengthening has been revealed on rivers nourished by glaciers, on the contrary in other rivers they reduced, in some regions, evaporation has been increased. For mitigation, negative impacts of those processes the recommendations of prevention measures are drafted.

Landscape and climate conditions of the mountainous rivers result into high and prolonged floods, which in their turn, lead to ecological deformation and do immeasurable harm to the environment as well as to the national economy. Complex measures are given to prevent existing and expected ecological troubles.

Analysis of main indices of natural potential and condition of using fresh water resources of South Caucasus is given in the article.

Forecasts have been made for high water flows on Rioni river with their maximum short-term discharge. The forecasting methods can be useful for preventive measures against the damage caused by disastrous floods and high waters.

Clean fresh water resources as one of the most important factors of sustainable development of the country. Analysis of main indices of natural potential and condition of using fresh water resources of Georgia is given in the article.

For the aim of mitigation of negative consequences of drought, a set of measures is recommended so as to slow down turning the territory into a desert, increase agricultural produce and improve economic well-being of the population.

We consider that the existence of reservoirs in ravine, geologically and relief relevant places is necessary, that during flooding are protecting - regulating constructions to restrain high water flow, and during low waters - basic source of water resources. Under the seismic stable ravine conditions it is preferred to construct small reservoir cascade.

The current global warming trend has increased the threat of dangerous hydrological calamities bringing about much damage. During the last 20 years massive calamities have taken place on the rivers of Georgia causing a grave harm to the economy of the country. Not only the disasters have been described but also the harm caused by them.

There have been determined maximum water expenditures and their probable values for the rivers: The Big Liakhvi, the Small Liakhvi and the Ksani. Certain recommendations have been put forward for carrying out emergency measures with the view of mitigating consequences of calamities.

There have been determined maximum water expenditures and their probable values for the rivers: The Big Liakhvi, the Small Liakhvi and the Ksani. Certain recommendations have been put forward for carrying out emergency measures with the view of mitigating consequences of calamities.

With the use of the statistical model, we obtained the forecast of floods and flooding in advance and accuracy level. The timely awareness about forthcoming high river runoff will give an opportunity to make respective preventive measures and safe human lives, as well as avoid damages.

The main reasons of great damage in the past floods have been revealed and the set of activities to mitigate the risk of water elements have been planned, such as: cleaning and deepening of river beds, completion and strengthening of unfinished bank protection structures, construction of waste way channels, terracing the slopes, the expansion of forest cover and the construction of small water reservoirs.

Based on the conducted research including forecasting models the adaptation activities have been proposed for mitigation of negative impact of hydrological catastrophic events. In mountain river valleys it would be useful to construct small reservoirs. For this river valley caves or dry lake hollows may be used.

Methods have been developed for forecasting quarterly, monthly, ten-day and daily flood runoff and for estimating maximum flood discharges and rain flood waters on the river of Enguri.

As a result of the recent floods and high water the norms of maximum water discharge, its extreme and probable quantities with the recurrence from 10 to 10,000 years have been ascertained. By applying a multifactor statistical model, prognostic equations taking into account various factors, have been worked out for maximum water discharge 1 - 3 months beforehand and rain floods 1 - 2 days advance. The prognoses are ascertained constantly taking into account sediment, air temperature, liquid-water content of snow and of rivers.

To prevent damage from flood, the constructed coastal protection structures are designed at certain values of the maximum discharge. Standarts for maximum discharge, their extreme value, variability, the date of passage and other characteristics where identified. The probability values of the maximum discharge of main tributaries of the Mtkvari river. The advance of forecast (1 - 3 months) makes it possible in anticipation of the high peaks, to implement timely all preventive measures that are necessary for safety of population and environment.

The maximum discharge on the river Mtkvari greatly exceeded the mean flow rate, causing considerable damage and some loss of life. According to the analysis of many year's data, there is a trend to higher values of maximum discharge, indicating that the probablity of a given flood discharge occurring or being exceeded is increasing. Equations with different data of standard observations are accepted for the forecasting of maximum discharges. All forecasts are of satisfaction quality by acceptable assessment.

Statistical characteristics of the peak of floods for the most important rivers of Georgia have been calculated. May da June are the months to see the peak, as high waves of waters of rain and melted snow combine. In their turn, the characteristics are initial and essential data for designing and probable environmental disasters have been worked out.

The research reported here aims to provide a predictive framework to assist water management in the various mountainous regions of Georgia. Timely warning about an oncoming danger enables us to avoid material loss incurred by the element. Early forecasts (a few months in advance) save us from the above as it enables to take certain safety measures in time and to minimize the loss.

Georgia is distinguished by its rich hydro resources, but due to their uneven discrimination, the demand on water frequently doesn't coincide with water provision. This causes acute deficit situation. Due to the global climate change it is expected that the fresh water amount will decrease in Georgia. We have elaborated multiple - factor statistical model for a forecast, which by means of different mathematical criteria and methods can simultaneously research the increase of the timeliness of forecasts and the level of their precision. We have obtained methodologies for short and long term forecasts of inflowing water properties in Georgia's main water reservoirs.

There are given expressions for estimation of maximum discharge of high-flood with 1 % providing. It's easy to estimate the discharge of the waters of uninvestigated rivers of western Georgia according to them, with one hundred year's repetition. On example of the river Tskhenistskali, there is given a method for prognosis of high-flood basing on multifactorial statistical model of the flow, talking into consideration standart information of hydrometeorological elements. Early prognosing (24 hours) enables to reduce considerable the material damage stemmed from high-floods.

By applying statistical method of prognosing there have been worked out equations for calculating maximal water discharge of rain and snow-rain flows on hydroranges of the river Rioni and its tributaries, that enable to prognose 24-20 hours in advance before reaching the peak. By means of such information it is possible to decrease material loss caused by disastrous high waters.

There is suggested statistical multifactoral model for prognosing water flow in the water reservoirs in condition of limited hydrometeorological information. This way there have been worked out long and short-term prognosis of water flow for diffef Dent periods of a year, average and maximum discharge of high water, vegetational, quarterly, monthly, decade, daily and maximal discharge of rain high-flood for the main tributaries of Djvari and Jhinvali water reservoirs.

Doctoral Thesis Referee

Master Theses Supervisor

Doctoral Thesis Supervisor/Co-supervisor

Scientific editor of monographs in foreign languages

Scientific editor of a monograph in Georgian

Editor-in-Chief of a peer-reviewed or professional journal / proceedings

Review of a scientific professional journal / proceedings

Member of the editorial board of a peer-reviewed scientific or professional journal / proceedings

Participation in a project / grant funded by an international organization

Participation in a project / grant funded from the state budget

Patent authorship

Membership of the Georgian National Academy of Science or Georgian Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Membership of an international professional organization

Membership of the Conference Organizing / Program Committee

National Award / Sectoral Award, Order, Medal, etc.

Honorary title

Monograph

Handbook

Research articles in high impact factor and local Scientific Journals

Publication in Scientific Conference Proceedings Indexed in Web of Science and Scopus